All-In E1: US Response to COVID-19 & Impact on Startups, VC & Public Markets with David Friedberg

Key Discussions

COVID-19 Testing and Health Response

• David Friedberg highlighted evidence suggesting 25-86% of COVID-19 cases may be asymptomatic, which could significantly lower the actual fatality rate
• Discussed urgent need for widespread antibody testing of general population, not just PCR testing of symptomatic cases
• Estimated true fatality rate likely between 0.15-1.8%, compared to initial estimates of 2-4%
• Critical need for rapid deployment of Chinese-made antibody tests, despite FDA approval challenges

Economic Impact & Market Response

• Markets experiencing extreme volatility and liquidity issues in repo markets
• Discussed potential $2-3 trillion stimulus package needed
• Chamath argued for direct payments of $5,000 per person to Americans making under $1M/year
• Airline industry bailouts should come with restrictions on stock buybacks and executive compensation

Advice for Startups

• Companies should cut burn rate and aim for 18-36 months of runway
• Many VCs seeing term sheets pulled and deals falling apart
• Need to focus on survival over growth
• Customer behavior and business models will fundamentally change post-crisis

Long-Term Implications

• Potential shift toward more nationalized economies and away from globalization
• Need to rebuild resilient supply chains vs just-in-time efficiency
• Discussion of wet markets and international health standards
• Prediction by David that West Coast could begin reopening around April 7-8th

Notable Quotes

"We are not going to act the same after this...this is probably the most socially impactful world event the globe has had to deal with since World War II." - Chamath Palihapitiya

"Survival matters more than growth right now." - David Friedberg

The episode provided a comprehensive look at the early pandemic response and its ripple effects across health, economics, and society, with particular focus on the startup/tech ecosystem.