All-In E104: FTX collapse with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong + election results, macro update & more
Episode 104 • 11/12/2022
Timestamps/Topics:
- Post-midterm election analysis and Trump's impact
- Special guest Brian Armstrong on FTX collapse
- Macro economic discussion
Key Highlights:
Midterm Elections
- Republicans underperformed expectations for a "red wave"
- Trump-backed candidates largely performed poorly while DeSantis won big in Florida
- Dobbs decision played larger role than expected (28% vs 15% in pre-election polls)
- Discussion highlighted importance of moderates and "messy middle" positions winning
FTX Collapse Discussion with Brian Armstrong
- Armstrong explained FTX's downfall stemmed from co-mingling customer funds with Alameda Research trading firm
- Highlighted differences in Coinbase's regulated approach vs FTX's offshore operations
- Estimated $6B in customer funds were inappropriately borrowed using FTT tokens as collateral
- Called for clearer crypto regulation framework in US to prevent offshore risks
Macro Economic Update
- Positive signals: Inflation ticking down, blocked student loan relief (deflationary), split government likely
- Market rallies driven by short covering rather than new buying
- Companies advised to plan for cash runway through Q1 2025 (9 quarters)
- Estimate of $500-700B in venture capital losses still to come
- Discussion of tech company layoffs and shift toward office return policies
The episode provided deep insights into three major topics: political shifts after midterms, cryptocurrency industry challenges after FTX's collapse, and ongoing macroeconomic concerns despite some positive signals.