All-In E118: AI FOMO frenzy, macro update, Fox vs Dominion, US vs China & more with Brad Gerstner
Episode 118 • 3/3/2023
AI Investment Trends & Valuations
- Discussed massive AI fundraising with 500+ generative AI startups raising over $11B collectively (excluding OpenAI)
- Sequoia's Doug Leone compared AI to previous platform shifts like mobile and internet, but warned against FOMO-driven investing
- Brad Gerstner noted $10-11B invested in AI startups is relatively small compared to Meta spending $20B/year on AR/VR
- Chamath warned about pressure on VCs to deploy capital due to high risk-free rates (6.5% on 3-month T-bills)
- Discussed challenge of identifying winners in foundation models, similar to early search engine competition
Economic & Market Update
- Markets showing concerns about sticky inflation, with 2-year bond rates rising significantly
- Brad Gerstner noted shift from expecting 2-3 rate hikes to now 3-4 more hikes
- Discussed quality of corporate earnings, with largest gap between reported earnings and actual cash flow since 1990
- Consumer spending remains strong despite higher rates, partly offset by lower energy costs
Fox News & Dominion Lawsuit
- Discussed $1.6B Dominion lawsuit against Fox News over election fraud claims
- Rupert Murdoch admitted Fox hosts promoted false election claims, saying he could have stopped it but didn't
- David Sacks argued current defamation laws make it difficult for Dominion to win due to "actual malice" requirement
US-China Relations & TikTok
- White House ordered removal of TikTok from federal devices within 30 days
- Discussed broader US-China decoupling through CHIPS Act and other measures
- Debated whether TikTok should be banned in US; Chamath predicted it likely will be banned as part of broader geopolitical competition
- Brad Gerstner (TikTok/ByteDance shareholder) advocated for improved parental controls rather than ban
Ukraine Discussion
- Heated debate between Jason and David Sacks over US role in Ukraine conflict
- Discussed China's peace proposal and role as potential mediator
- Disagreement over whether US/NATO actions were provocative toward Russia
The episode concluded with discussions on Harvard legacy admissions, Draymond Green's comments on Black History Month, and corrections to previous Stripe valuation analysis.