All-In E121: Macro update, Fed hike, CRE debt bubble, Balaji's Bitcoin bet, TikTok's endgame & more
Episode 121 • 3/24/2023
Key discussion topics from this episode:
Fed Rate Hike & Banking Crisis
- Fed raised rates by 25 basis points despite recent banking turmoil
- Chamath argued they should have raised 50bps to provide clearer signal, while Sacks preferred a pause
- Discussion of record-high $152B borrowed from Fed discount window, exceeding 2008 levels
- Debate over proper response to bank deposit insurance and systemic risks
Commercial Real Estate Crisis
- Banks hold approximately $2.3T in commercial real estate debt
- High vacancy rates (30-40% in San Francisco) creating major systemic risks
- Group discussed potential need for government intervention to prevent catastrophic fire sales
- Sacks explained how declining rents and rising rates create perfect storm for CRE defaults
Bank Deposit Insurance Reform
- Discussion of raising FDIC limits beyond $250K
- Friedberg explained how higher universal deposit insurance could actually lower systemic risk
- Debate over moral hazard vs practical necessity of protecting all deposits
- Agreement that current system creates misaligned incentives between depositors and banks
Balaji's Bitcoin Bet
- Analysis of Balaji Srinivasan's $1M Bitcoin prediction due to claimed coming hyperinflation
- Group generally skeptical of 90-day timeline while acknowledging legitimate concerns about monetary system
- Chamath criticized linking valid banking system concerns to Bitcoin maximalist positions
- Discussion of coordinated crypto industry crackdown by regulators
TikTok Congressional Hearing
- CEO struggled to clearly deny CCP consultation/influence
- Bipartisan skepticism of TikTok's independence from China
- Group predicted likely US shutdown rather than divestiture due to technical complexity
- Discussion of broader US-China technology and policy tensions
The episode concluded with updates on space technology, including Relativity Space's successful rocket launch with 85% 3D-printed components.