All-In E151: WW3 risk, War with Iran?, 4.9% GDP, startup failures growing, new Speaker & more

Episode 151 • 10/27/2023

Geopolitical Tensions & War Risks

David Sacks hosted a Twitter Space with Vivek and Elon Musk on preventing World War III
Elon expressed serious concerns about war risks based on conversations with world leaders
Discussion of three potential scenarios for Israel-Gaza conflict:
1. Successful Israeli operation with US deterring Hezbollah/Iran
2. Difficult guerrilla fighting leading to eventual ceasefire
3. Escalation involving Hezbollah, Iran, and multiple fronts
Debate over Wall Street Journal's coverage of Iran's involvement, with Sacks arguing WSJ is "beating the drums of war" through both news and editorial content
Friedberg raised concerns about potential nuclear weapons use as conventional weapons stockpiles deplete

Economic Indicators & Market Conditions

Q3 GDP growth surprisingly strong at 4.9%, higher than 4.3% expectations and Q2's 2.1%
CPI in September at 3.7%, slightly above 3.6% estimates
Discussion of disconnect between strong economic data and struggling financial markets
Fintech sector seeing significant downturn since August
Major banks facing large unrealized losses:
- Bank of America: $131B in Q3
- JPMorgan: $40B in Q3
- Citigroup: $24B in Q2

Startup Landscape

Carta data shows startup shutdowns tripling from ~70/quarter in 2020-21 to 220 in Q3 2023
Discussion of challenges in late-stage funding and IPO markets
Debate over Stripe's potential valuation and impact on broader startup ecosystem
Agreement that profitability is now key versus growth at all costs

Political Developments

Mike Johnson elected as new House Speaker
Discussion of his conservative positions and potential impact on Republican party
Updates on Trump legal cases including guilty pleas from Sidney Powell and others
Debate over implications of ongoing investigations and prosecutions

The episode covered a wide range of critical issues facing markets, technology, and global stability, with particular focus on mounting geopolitical risks and economic uncertainty.