All-In E158: Global trade disrupted, Adobe/Figma canceled, realtors sued, Trump blocked
Episode 158 • 12/23/2023
Trade Disruptions in the Red Sea
- Houthi rebels are attacking commercial ships in the Red Sea with drones and missiles in response to Israel's Gaza campaign
- Major impact on global trade:
- 30% of ocean container traffic flows through the region
- Ships now forced to go around Africa's Cape of Good Hope, adding 20-25% to journey times
- All five major shipping conglomerates have paused Red Sea transfers
- Insurance costs have spiked dramatically for ships in the region
Ryan Peterson from Flexport joins to explain the asymmetric warfare aspect - cheap drones/missiles forcing expensive countermeasures and disrupting billions in trade.
Adobe/Figma Deal Canceled
- Adobe and Figma called off their $20B merger after 15-month regulatory review
- Deal cancellation highlights challenges for tech M&A:
- Regulatory environment makes large deals increasingly difficult
- Adobe paying $1B breakup fee
- IPO path becoming main option for startups but capital markets not ready to support
Real Estate Industry Lawsuits
- Federal jury found National Association of Realtors guilty of inflating commissions
- Could face up to $13B in damages across multiple lawsuits
- Current system charges ~6% commission split between buyer/seller agents
- Discussion of how the MLS listing service maintains monopolistic control
- Group predicts major industry disruption and reform of commission structure
Trump Colorado Ballot Decision
- Colorado Supreme Court removed Trump from state's primary ballot citing 14th Amendment
- 4-3 decision based on "engagement in insurrection" clause
- Group largely critical of decision:
- Lack of due process as Trump never convicted of insurrection
- Concerns about precedent for future elections
- Prediction it will be overturned by US Supreme Court
- Discussion of potential political backlash and impact on 2024 race