All-In E160: 2024 Predictions! Markets, tech, politics, and more
Episode 160 • 1/6/2024
Politics
Biggest Political Winner 2024:
- Three hosts independently predicted Independent/Third Party candidates as the biggest winners, noting growing dissatisfaction with the two-party system
- Sacks predicted Vladimir Putin, citing his strengthened economy despite sanctions and growing influence in the global south
- RFK Jr.'s independent candidacy was highlighted as potentially significant, recently getting added to Utah ballot
Biggest Political Loser 2024:
- Chamath: The Koch family, noting their poor track record of political investments
- Friedberg: Ukraine, predicting reduced US support and NATO prospects amid Middle East conflicts
- Sacks: The "Collective West", citing setbacks in Ukraine and Israel/Gaza
- Jason: Netanyahu, citing 75% odds of ouster according to polls
Business & Markets
Biggest Business Winner 2024:
- Friedberg: Commodities businesses, predicting a boom from underinvestment and cash flowing from Treasuries
- Chamath: Bootstrapped profitable startups, enabled by AI reducing costs
- Sacks: Anduril's Roadrunner drone interceptor product
- Jason: Training data owners (NYT, Reddit, X, YouTube) as AI models reach parity
Biggest Business Loser 2024:
- Chamath: LLM startups, predicting 50-80% valuation drops due to open source competition
- Sacks: The "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks relative to broader market
- Friedberg: Vertical SaaS companies, as AI enables custom enterprise solutions
- Jason: Smartphone manufacturers due to longer upgrade cycles
Most Anticipated Trends:
- Chamath: Bitcoin mainstream adoption through ETF approval
- Friedberg: AI-driven discovery in biopharma and materials science
- Sacks: Continued exponential advances in AI capabilities
- Jason: Efficiency gains through AI and global outsourcing
Media & Entertainment
The hosts discussed anticipated media releases including:
- Gladiator 2
- House of Dragon Season 2
- Netflix's Three Body Problem adaptation
- A potential PayPal founding story series being developed with Drake's production company
- Mr. Beast's continued YouTube dominance predicted
- AI-generated personalized news content
The episode concluded with each host sharing their emotional outlook for 2024, ranging from enthusiasm to caution, with particular concerns raised about global debt levels and potential conflicts.