All-In E165: Vision Pro: use or lose? Meta vs Snap, SaaS recovery, AI investing, rolling real estate crisis
Episode 165 • 2/9/2024
Apple Vision Pro Discussion
- Friedberg shared hands-on experience, highlighting enterprise potential particularly for training and workplace productivity
- The device offers superior AR experience compared to Meta's VR headsets, with less dizziness and better integration with reality
- Chamath raised concerns about social impact, comparing it to negative effects of social media on younger generations
- Initial sales of ~200,000 units at $4,000 price point discussed as promising start
- Debate over whether it's more comparable to laptop/TV purchase or new computing platform
Meta vs Snap Analysis
- Meta showing strong recovery with Q4 profits reaching all-time high of $14B
- Snap struggling with stock down 60% from IPO price
- Key differences highlighted:
- Meta reduced headcount by 22%, while Snap only cut 3%
- Meta's stock-based compensation more sustainable relative to cash flow
- Meta successfully adapted to Apple's privacy changes through AI optimization
- Snap's governance structure criticized for lack of shareholder input
SaaS Market Recovery
- David Sacks noted signs of recovery after "SaaS depression" of 6-7 quarters
- Cloud providers showing increased net new ARR in Q4
- Companies starting to beat conservative forecasts
- Discussion of changing dynamics in enterprise software development vs buying
AI Investment Landscape
- Three main investment categories identified: foundation models, infrastructure, and applications
- Debate over value of proprietary vs open-source models
- YouTube highlighted as potentially most valuable AI training data asset
- Discussion of enterprise adoption challenges including speed/performance issues
Commercial Real Estate Crisis
- $20T total market with $6T in debt
- Office market potentially facing $1.2T in losses
- Discussion of "pretend and extend" practices by banks
- Concerns about impact on pension funds and potential government intervention
- Contrast between office market struggles and residential real estate dynamics
The episode provided deep insights into major tech and financial trends, with particular focus on how emerging technologies and market conditions are reshaping various industries.