All-In E186: Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Episode 186 • 7/4/2024
Growing "Hot Swap" Momentum & Presidential Race Updates
- Prediction markets now show Kamala Harris as favorite (50%) to be Democratic nominee, with Biden dropping from 66% to 28%
- Discussion of whether Biden will drop out, with chances now at 77% according to prediction markets
- Upcoming Biden interview with George Stephanopoulos viewed as crucial moment
- Debate over potential alternative candidates like Jamie Dimon or Bob Iger, though most agreed Harris is most likely successor
- Chamath predicts Democratic Party will do a "primary speedrun" with 5 debates in 10 weeks
Major Supreme Court Rulings Analysis
- Content Moderation (NetChoice Case):
- Unanimous ruling protecting platforms' First Amendment rights to moderate content
- Texas/Florida laws requiring notification of content removal struck down
- Court views content moderation as protected editorial judgment
- Chevron Doctrine Overturning:
- 6-3 ruling ends 40-year precedent of courts deferring to federal agencies
- Shifts power from administrative agencies back to courts
- Discussion of implications for regulatory state and democracy
- Presidential Immunity:
- 6-3 ruling grants broad immunity for official presidential acts
- Creates framework distinguishing between official, presumptive, and personal acts
- Debate over implications for Trump's election interference cases
Notable Analysis
- Group largely positive on Supreme Court's recent decisions, noting many non-ideological splits
- Discussion of court's 3-3-3 composition (conservative, liberal, swing votes)
- Concerns raised about calls to pack the court despite its current balanced function
- Biden explicitly stated he's staying in race: "I'm not leaving. I'm in this race to the end"
The episode provides deep analysis of major political and legal developments with significant implications for the 2024 election and beyond.