All-In E193: Massive jobs revision, Kamala wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions

Jobs Data Revision

• Labor Department revised down job growth numbers by approximately 818,000 jobs (30% reduction) for the 12 months leading to March 2024
• Original report showed 2.9M new jobs, revised to 2.1M
• Largest downward revision since 2009 post-Great Recession
• Professional and business services saw biggest decline (-358,000 jobs)
• Unemployment rate remains below 4%

Kamala Harris/Biden Tax Proposals

• Harris reportedly backing Biden's 2025 tax plan including:
  • 25% wealth tax on unrealized gains for those with >$100M in assets
  • Increasing corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%
  • Quadrupling stock buyback tax to 4%
• Plan would affect approximately 5,000 people
• Concerns raised about:
  • Impact on entrepreneurs with illiquid assets
  • Constitutional challenges
  • Capital flight risk to other countries
  • Compliance complexity

Polls vs Prediction Markets for 2024

• Nate Silver shows race essentially tied (Harris 47%, Trump 45%)
• Betting markets showing increased odds for Trump recently
• Discussion of reliability:
  • Polls limited by sampling issues
  • Prediction markets limited by low liquidity
  • Both serve as directional indicators but neither definitive

End of Race-Based Admissions

• MIT data shows Asian American enrollment increased from 41% to 47% after Supreme Court decision
• Decline seen in Black and Latino student enrollment
• Discussion centered on:
  • Merit vs diversity considerations
  • Role of socioeconomic factors
  • Importance of students pursuing genuine interests vs credentials
• Agreement that socioeconomic background should be considered over race

The group generally expressed concerns about the proposed wealth tax's practicality and economic impact, while supporting merit-based admissions with consideration for socioeconomic factors rather than race.