All-In E199: Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Episode 199 • 10/12/2024
Hurricane Impact and Climate Discussion
- Discussed Hurricane Milton making landfall in Florida and Hurricane Helene's devastating impact across southern states
- Friedberg explained how ocean warming contributes to hurricane intensity, noting that 90% of solar energy is absorbed by oceans
- Discussed how removal of sulfur dioxide from cargo ships may be accelerating ocean warming
- Economic impact: Florida coastline has $500B-1T in real estate value threatened by increasing storm frequency
- Insurance implications: State-backed Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund only has $17B capacity vs potential $40-50B losses
AlphaFold Nobel Prize
- Google DeepMind's Demis Hassabis and John Jumper won Nobel Prize in Chemistry for AlphaFold
- Friedberg explained significance: Breakthrough in predicting 3D protein structures enables new drug discovery and biotech applications
- Has led to multiple companies and billions in investment in related applications
- Group noted how this represents convergence of computer science with hard sciences
Google Antitrust Case
- DOJ considering structural remedies including potential breakup of Google
- Options include:
- Terminating exclusive agreements with hardware companies
- Separating Chrome and Android
- Restricting data tracking
- Discussion of pros/cons of breaking up large tech companies
- Friedberg argued for benefits of large companies' R&D investments (citing Bell Labs example)
Election Update
- Betting markets showing Trump slight lead (52-55%) vs Harris
- Polls showing Harris with 2-3 point lead
- Sacks noted Trump leading in swing state polling and Electoral College projections
- Discussion of Harris's recent media appearances and campaign strategy
VC Industry Trends
- CRV giving back $275M from recent funds
- Chamath discussed LP allocation issues and industry rationalization
- Group discussed challenges of large fund economics requiring massive exits
- Noted trend toward more concentrated capital in fewer managers
TikTok Survey Findings
- Pew research shows 40% of adults 18-29 get news from TikTok
- 52% of TikTok users get news from platform, up from 22%
- Discussion of potential national security implications
- Sacks argued concerns are overblown as platform remains primarily entertainment-focused
[The full episode covered additional topics but these were the main themes discussed]