All-In E201: Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

Markets & Economic Discussion

• Discussion of diverging market signals:

  • Bonds falling with 10-year yields spiking above 4.25%
  • Gold prices surging to $2,750/oz
  • S&P 500 hitting all-time highs
  • Bitcoin reaching $68,000

• Chamath argued these market movements suggest investors are pricing in a Trump victory, with markets believing Trump's economic plan will drive better growth than Harris's plan

• Discussed concerns about national debt servicing costs reaching $1.35 trillion annually ($3,500 per American)

• David Sacks highlighted Paul Tudor Jones and Stan Druckenmiller's views on inflation risks, with Druckenmiller holding a 20% short position in US Treasuries

Election Analysis

• Polls and prediction markets showing momentum toward Trump:

  • Wall Street Journal poll showing Trump up 3 points nationally
  • CNBC poll showing Trump up 2 points nationally
  • Trump leading in battleground states
  • Early voting numbers favoring Republicans

• Discussion of Harris campaign challenges:

  • Difficulty explaining differences from Biden policies
  • Return to "Trump is a threat to democracy" messaging
  • Anderson Cooper interview highlighting campaign struggles

Starbucks Analysis

• Company facing significant challenges:

  • 7% decline in same-store sales
  • 25% drop in earnings per share
  • New CEO Brian Nichols suspending 2025 guidance

• Chamath argued Starbucks faces existential threat from GLP-1 drugs reducing demand for sugary drinks

• David Friedberg suggested Starbucks has hit natural growth limits after maximizing brand reach, customer frequency, and pricing power

• Discussion of need to refocus on core coffee experience while managing transition away from sugary drinks that drove recent growth

The episode concluded with a brief discussion of Apple's product challenges and interface design issues in iOS 18.