All-In E74: Market update, inverted yield curve, immigration, new SPAC rules, $FB smears TikTok and more
Episode 74 • 4/1/2022
Market Update & Recession Indicators
- Discussion of yield curve inversion and what it signals about potential recession
- Chamath explained the difference between 2-10 year spread vs 3month-18month "forward spread"
- Market near all-time highs despite multiple headwinds (inflation, war, supply chain issues)
- Companies with strong fundamentals doing well while weaker ones getting "whacked"
Immigration Reform Discussion
- Group agreed current system is broken but differed on solutions
- Proposed a three-bucket system: humanitarian cases, high-skilled workers, and general lottery
- Highlighted contradiction that 18-year-olds can buy guns but not invest in private companies
- Discussed need for immigration to address declining US birth rates and labor shortages
New SPAC Regulations
- SEC proposing stricter rules around forward-looking statements
- Chamath suggested regulations should focus on sponsor skin-in-game requirements
- Predicted SPAC market will consolidate to ~10 experienced operators
Facebook vs TikTok
- Facebook hired GOP firm to highlight TikTok's risks and foreign ownership
- Group discussed whether TikTok should be allowed to operate in US given China's restrictions on US tech companies
- Debate around reciprocity in market access between US and China
Ukraine-Russia Update
- Biden's "regime change" comment created diplomatic incident
- Sacks argued for quick resolution rather than prolonged conflict
- Discussed potential peace deal framework including neutral Ukraine
- Friedberg warned about potential global food security issues due to disrupted planting season
Conference Updates
- Announced Palmer Luckey as speaker
- Improving gender diversity ratio from 90-10 to 65-35
- Theme will focus on "what problem are you solving?"
The episode showcased the hosts' deep analysis of complex economic and policy issues while maintaining their characteristic banter and disagreements.