All-In E86: Macro outlook: jobs, housing, inflation + Dutch farmers protests & EU climate missteps

Key Discussion Points:

• Jobs & Employment

  • Record high job openings with 11.3-11.9M positions available
  • Two jobs available for every unemployed person
  • Quits remain high at over 4M monthly vs pre-pandemic 3M
  • White collar jobs dropped 325k, manufacturing down 208k
  • Hospitality and retail jobs increasing

• Housing Market & Real Estate

  • Mortgage rates hit 5.3%, still below historical 7.77% average
  • Home sales showing weakness, down 6-7% year over year
  • Commercial real estate facing challenges
  • San Francisco expecting 30M sq ft office vacancy (40% vacancy) by year end
  • Discussion of potential conversion of office to residential

• Inflation & Economic Outlook

  • Average household spending $5,000/year on gasoline, nearly double from last year
  • Consumer confidence falling but spending remains strong
  • Debate over whether economy is experiencing supply-side or demand-side recession
  • Discussion of Fed's approach to managing inflation through rate hikes

• European Energy Policy

  • EU Parliament reversed course on nuclear power, now classifying it as "green" energy
  • Natural gas also classified as green energy
  • Discussion of implications for energy independence from Russia
  • Criticism of previous German decision to shut down nuclear plants

• Dutch Farmer Protests

  • Government proposal to cut nitrogen emissions 50% by 2030
  • 40,000 farmers protested against regulations
  • Debate over implementation approach and impact on livelihoods
  • Discussion of technological alternatives and policy execution

Analysis & Notable Quotes:

Chamath on economic phases: "I think we're in the early phases of a two-phase recession and I don't know what that looks like because I've never lived through one of those."

David Friedberg on technology solutions: "Technology is going to solve this problem. I'm super optimistic on that. There are microbes that are being used to coat seed... you don't need ammonia."

David Sacks on policy implementation: "You got a bunch of technocratic bureaucrats in Brussels who don't know anything about farming... and they make up these completely arbitrary guidelines."