All-In E91: SoftBank's $21B+ Vision Fund loss, signals of a bubble, macro picture, Trump raided by FBI

SoftBank Vision Fund Discussion

• Discussed SoftBank's $21B+ Vision Fund loss and Masayoshi Son's public response, including a YouTube video comparing himself to a Japanese Shogun
• Chamath pointed out that the Vision Fund's main structural flaw was having only a 5-year investment period for $100B, forcing them to deploy $20B per year
• Friedberg highlighted how giving companies too much capital became problematic as it became their primary asset rather than fuel for growth
• The group discussed how SoftBank's "kingmaker" strategy of writing massive checks failed, with Tiger's more passive approach being potentially better

Economic Discussion

• New inflation data showed 8.5% YoY increase, with month-over-month at 0%
• Jobs report showed twice as many jobs created as expected, with 3.5% unemployment
• Sacks predicted potential "double dip" recession in 2023 as rate hikes take full effect
• Friedberg raised concerns about rising consumer credit/debt levels as a potential risk

FBI Raid on Mar-a-Lago

• Group debated the unprecedented nature and optics of the FBI raid
• Sacks questioned FBI credibility given past actions
• Friedberg expressed concern about declining trust in institutions
• Discussion of potential nuclear documents as justification for the raid
• Agreement that the raid has increased political polarization regardless of outcome

Key theme throughout the episode was institutional trust and stability, with concerns raised about both financial markets and government institutions in a time of heightened polarization.