All-In E96: Adobe acquires Figma for $20B, TPB SPAC, FedEx CEO's recession warning, macro picture & more
Episode 96 • 9/17/2022
Key discussions and takeaways:
Adobe-Figma Deal Analysis
- Adobe agreed to acquire Figma for $20B, representing the largest private company purchase in history
- Figma's ARR growth has been exceptional: from $700K in 2017 to projected $450M in 2022
- The group discussed how Figma took 5 years before monetization but built strong network effects
- David Sacks explained how the valuation represents ~8-10x forward revenue, not the 50x current revenue some critics cite
- The deal structure includes $10B cash and $10B in stock, deliberately structured below shareholder vote threshold
David Friedberg's SPAC Deal
- TPB Acquisition Corp announced merger with Livoro, Latin America's largest agricultural inputs retailer
- Deal aims to improve farming productivity in Brazil where yields are currently half of US levels
- Structure includes performance-based vesting of founder shares tied to stock price targets
- Focus on addressing global food security concerns and modernizing agricultural practices
Economic Outlook & FedEx Warning
- FedEx CEO warned of global recession after missing earnings, stock dropped 25%
- Mixed signals in economy with retail sales holding but real wages declining
- Discussion of Fed rate hikes impact on housing market with 30-year mortgages rising
- Debate over whether FedEx's issues are more about Amazon competition than recession
Geopolitical Tensions & Food Security
- UN warning of 345 million people facing acute food insecurity
- Discussion of fertilizer shortages and impact of natural gas prices on production
- Concerns about escalating tensions in Ukraine conflict
- Analysis of Russia's military recruitment strategy and domestic support
The episode highlighted significant market developments while exploring deeper structural changes in technology, agriculture, and global security.