All-In E98: Big tech starts making cuts, Fed incompetency, global debt, Russia/Ukraine & more

Big Tech Making Cuts & Market Outlook

• Meta announced a hiring freeze and plans to reduce headcount for first time in history. Zuckerberg announced changes
• Apple pulled back iPhone 14 production due to lower demand
• Google CEO called out productivity concerns with current headcount
• The group discussed how this represents the end of an era of unfettered growth in big tech

Chamath argued this is just the beginning of a broader shift as companies move from growth to cash flow focus. Companies like Apple, Meta, and Google are the most sensitive to valuations as they are widely held "safe haven" stocks.

Startup & Talent Market Impact

• Jason noted this could benefit startups by making top talent more available as big tech reduces hiring
• The group discussed how previous downturns (2001-2003, 2008-2009) led to creation of major companies like Uber, Airbnb, Google
• Friberg explained how Silicon Valley compensation and benefits have evolved since early 2000s

Federal Reserve & Economic Outlook

• Discussion of Fed's policy mistakes, including keeping zero interest rates too long
• Debate over responsibility between Trump vs Biden administrations for stimulus spending
• Chamath showed data suggesting markets typically bottom in first third of rate hiking cycles
• David Sacks expressed concern about escalating Russia/Ukraine conflict as major market risk

Russia/Ukraine Discussion

• Sacks argued the conflict is heading toward escalation as diplomatic off-ramps are removed
• Discussed risks of potential nuclear escalation
• Debate over whether markets have priced in geopolitical risks
• Group disagreed on likelihood and impact of various escalation scenarios

The episode concluded with varying market outlooks - Chamath seeing potential bottoming process while others remained concerned about tail risks and geopolitical tensions.